Ok its time to play dirty when nobody recognises the value your business inherently has.
We cannot allow all the good work that has been done to be stymied at the 11th hour. What we all want to know is what is fair value irrespective of what we paid individually for the stock. Selling is just one option. How, What ,When & For is the conundrum.
For those that have played Monopoly you might understand the strategy towards the end of the game to "land in jail" for as long as possible when continuing to circle the board will only bring about bankruptcy. Clear a couple of other players off the board first if you can and then make your move. Its all about timing and agility.
I have no idea if this is even close to what the Humm Board is thinking but..............it works for me as the sharks begin to circle.
1/ create a circumstance where more than one offer has / are arriving i.e. Lattitude, BOQ, exChair etc with no clear answer as to who is on 1st base with any certainty. Goal: to suck out the "unthinkable".
2/ get the Chairman to step down so he has a much greater free hand in any wheeling and dealing as the largest shareholder. Clearly he has his own interests to protect but he also has 500+ staff to think about that have given their all, turning around his baby. They will all be seriously let down if this is trashed by the likes of Lattitudes' current offer. Remember we are only at the beginning of entering the sand pit and one is a long time dead when people have bad things to say about you. Money is not everything.
3/ be very clear that there are 2-3 BNPL businesses that are about to implode but time is needed to get through latest reporting period, (exclusivity until Jan 31st) which will more clearly expose their predicament. Best result in strife would be businesses operating in UK and NZ. What Humm is looking for is less competition in target markets not necessarily a merger/takeover of a minnow.
4/ nothing is going to work unless Humm Mgt can produce a set of financial nos that balance growth, profitability, dividends and ongoing risk management control. It is why there has been minimal focus on launching Canada and driving UK for now. Plenty of time for that, we all know the building blocks are in place. That is the growth but it could have seriously impacted profitability if pushed too fast in the last Qtr.
5/ also what we are waiting for which is even more relevant and critical right now is time, as Covid's Omnicron is now going to decimate supply chains "visit your supermarket" in the short term creating all sorts of unexpected issues.
6/ those who can get through the next 3-6mths are going to prosper on the proviso there are no more variants and we head to herd immunity. Make no mistake the next period is all about metaphorically "being in jail".
7/ RJ has to stay quiet and bite her tongue until the time is right. That will become evident if and when certain competition starts to attract real media scrutiny and Humm has its ducks in a row. No way does she want to go from Humm to Lattitude to run 40% of what she currently does.
8/ contributors to HotCopper are going to go crazy and will probably start suggesting they will accept 50c just to move on. Take a holiday, get Covid, do your bit by holding fire until early March when all will become clear.
Nothing can really happen till the AGM luckily, if a vote is required. Every day is going to be very interesting, so take a chill pill and help to get an understanding of what is the true value. Then come out of jail having gone in as the only profitable BNPL/(Old School)Fintech and make everyone happy.
