Ann: Proposed Acquisition of ResApp Health by Pfizer, page-552

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Stellowe

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12/04/22

16:02

Post #: 60811319
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Originally posted by pilko3: ↑

Possible scenario...
Pfizer keep an eye on the SH sentiment and make another offer based on the fair value assessment (which we know will be premature or skewed) when it is released. So just say fair value comes in at 22 cents per share...Pfizer "generously" offer to double their buy out price and offer 23 cents per share.
How many SH decide to jump onto the sell side then? Strategy wins this play...we have to outplay them.

Another scenario may be that Pfizer say OK we withdraw our offer however we want an exclusive on the Covid Cough Test.
We will give you $10 million up front and we will sort out FDA, CE and TGA (both the latter shoe ins) and we will give RAP 20% royalty on whatever the take is in $ dollar terms for the RAPid Covid test. So away they go...RAP (and us) retains control of the telehealth etc side of things and perhaps gets a 20% fee on $2.5 billion p.a.

How do Pfizer do $2.55 billion in Covid cough test revenue per year. They would sell (conservatively) 500 million covid cough test packs per year. The average user will test 20 times per year. That reduces the total number of repeat customers to 200 million. So we will halve that figure (100 million repeat customers) so only 250 million test packs per year at $10. Suggest $10 per pack of 8 tests...$1.25 per test. Reasonable?
That is $2.5 billion and RAP gets $500 million p.a. royalty. That makes the RAP SP (PE 30x) $17 per share not counting massive revenue starting to build from the Dx and telehealth sector worldwide.
So now go away and contemplate how ridiculous the 11.5 cent per share Pfizer offer really is.
We need to play this very well and I mean very well or this "suitor" is going to scream with laughter derisively when they take RAP and us out for peanuts. Peanuts!

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can someone explain if or how the development collaboration applies after aquisition..

RAP Price at posting: 11.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Proposed Acquisition of ResApp Health by Pfizer, page-552

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