To be clear, I'm saying that given management is aggressively returning capital and signalling they will monetise the CP ahead of payout, it makes no sense for them to sit on it and hold it. If that was their plan they wouldn't have returned the $25m, they would have found a new field to drill.
So yes I agree that timing is still a risk and not a good return over 4 years. But reading the tea leaves I see this risk as minimal, and so the payoff looks attractive to me.
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