Ann: Proposed issue of securities - TBN, page-38

Reckon this sums it up:

	Component	Market Expectations	Your View (If Bullish)
1	Phase 1 IP30 (SS-2H ST1)	<10 MMcf/d	>18 MMcf/d (management guide)
2	Phase 1 Funding/Execution	Fully funded but unproven	De-risked with US$70M raised
3	Farm-ins & Pipeline (Phase 2)	FID uncertain, low embedded value	Moves ahead by 2026, enables 1 Bcf/d development
4	NTLNG Option	Zero value embedded	Strategic upside if signed by Shell/BP
5	Share Price (US$17.74 PIPE)	~US$250M market cap	~18% of risked NAV (Hannam base case)

I’m not fussed about SS-3H. It was much more important to secure funding to get to first gas and start farm-in negotiations for Phase 2. SS-2H should provide the goods. And the next 4 fully funded wells should do the same. It’s already certain that there’s many TCFs of gas in the basin and the pressure regime delivers world-class EURs.

Sheffield would have known what SS-2H will deliver when signing up to shell out US$25m on 12 May. Flaring had just started and I bet it was off the charts.

The longer soak was always the right call but management would have been nervous and keen to secure funding, reckoning 2 x 18 mmcf/d would suffice. 5 iron down the fairway as JR said earlier this year. The casing problem on SS-3H changed the odds.

Luckily, Sheffield is all-in on this now so sorted it out. It will be soon forgotten. We’re almost at the half-way point for IP30. Take your bets.