1 THL share = $3.02NZD = $2.87AUD
1 THL share = 3.68 ATL shares under proposed merger
so 3.68 ATL shares = $2.87AUD
1 ATL share = $0.779
Given ATL's current share price of $0.70, this implies a raw return of 11.3% if the merger goes through (23.9% annualised assuming 6 months is the time until close - which is roughly right).
I bought more because this looks like a great opportunity - even if the deal falls through I don't mind because I think ATL is undervalued at these prices or lower anyway.
When I spoke to Luke Trouchet a few months ago, he said there is a duopoly with ATL and THL which is expected to continue for the next 3-5 years. This duopoly will become a monopoly if the merger is complete, which makes me tempted to keep holding if the merger does complete.
Other positives:
ATL has a majority vote already since the owner/founder owns 53.4%.
Given the hardship experienced by the travel industry, it would feel cruel if ACCC and NZCC rejected the merger.
The merger makes sense with clear synergies evident and cost savings.
Not a large premium to undisturbed price (and I think the premium is less than ATL's intrinsic value anyway)
But the negatives:
It's for a PROPOSED merger i.e. no scheme booklet released yet.
Foreign bidder - which means exchange rate risk and extra hoops to jump through
Consideration is 1 THL share for 3.68 ATL shares - would prefer if the consideration was cash
Unlikely to see multiple bidders
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1 THL share = $3.02NZD = $2.87AUD1 THL share = 3.68 ATL shares...
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