Hi all,
Thought I'd do some quick math on the upgraded CoS (Chance of Success) figures.
Quick reminder on probability math (in case anyone is rusty from high school) - will look at rolling a dice for simplicity's sake:
Single roll:
Probability of getting a 1 on one roll = 1/6 or 0.1666 or 16.66%
Probability of not getting a 1 on one roll = 1 - 1/6 = 5/6 or 0.8333 or 83.33%
Multiple rolls:Probability of not getting a 1 on two rolls = 5/6 x 5/6 = 25/36 or 0.6944 or 69.44%
Probability of getting at least 1 on two rolls = 1 - (5/6 x 5/6) = 1 - 0.6944 = 0.3055 = 30.55%
^this last one is what we're interested in - i.e., chance of success in at least one of the stacked targets. Note - does not equal 1/6 + 1/6 = 33.33%. That would imply rolling a dice 6 times would give 100% chance of success of getting a 1 (not true).
Looking at the updated CoS figures (except from ann):
I have added CoF (Chance fo Failure) numbers below for the sake of calculation (i.e., chance of not rolling a 1, as above).
Using the more conservative ERCE numbers, the CoS of hitting gas / condensate in at least one of the stacked targets is ~67%. Starting to look pretty compelling!
Of course, these figures are all estimates with no calibration wells and no 3D siesmic, but take from it what you will.
Cheers & GLTAH,
DR
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: Prospective Resource Upgraded to 20Tcf and 845m Barrels
Hi all,Thought I'd do some quick math on the upgraded CoS...
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 6 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add IVZ (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
7.3¢ |
Change
0.002(2.82%) |
Mkt cap ! $110.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
7.1¢ | 7.3¢ | 7.1¢ | $65.13K | 904.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 136210 | 7.2¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.3¢ | 865999 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 136210 | 0.072 |
6 | 572924 | 0.071 |
9 | 580439 | 0.070 |
3 | 150762 | 0.069 |
5 | 770000 | 0.068 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.073 | 865999 | 5 |
0.074 | 1022630 | 6 |
0.075 | 1012937 | 8 |
0.076 | 1010000 | 5 |
0.077 | 900000 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
IVZ (ASX) Chart |