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While this is fun and illustrates the benefit of stacked...

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Catch2200

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14/07/22

08:51

Post #: 62526901
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Originally posted by DigitalRoman: ↑

Hi all,

Thought I'd do some quick math on the upgraded CoS (Chance of Success) figures.

Quick reminder on probability math (in case anyone is rusty from high school) - will look at rolling a dice for simplicity's sake:

Single roll:
Probability of getting a 1 on one roll = 1/6 or 0.1666 or 16.66%
Probability of not getting a 1 on one roll = 1 - 1/6 = 5/6 or 0.8333 or 83.33%

Multiple rolls:
Probability of not getting a 1 on two rolls = 5/6 x 5/6 = 25/36 or 0.6944 or 69.44%
Probability of getting at least 1 on two rolls = 1 - (5/6 x 5/6) = 1 - 0.6944 = 0.3055 = 30.55%

^this last one is what we're interested in - i.e., chance of success in at least one of the stacked targets. Note - does not equal 1/6 + 1/6 = 33.33%. That would imply rolling a dice 6 times would give 100% chance of success of getting a 1 (not true).

Looking at the updated CoS figures (except from ann):

I have added CoF (Chance fo Failure) numbers below for the sake of calculation (i.e., chance of not rolling a 1, as above).

Using the more conservative ERCE numbers, the CoS of hitting gas / condensate in at least one of the stacked targets is ~67%. Starting to look pretty compelling!

Of course, these figures are all estimates with no calibration wells and no 3D siesmic, but take from it what you will.

Cheers & GLTAH,

DR

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While this is fun and illustrates the benefit of stacked targets, this calculation also assumes that each target is truly independent which in practice is very unlikely for this kind of operation.

The real probability adjusted for interdependence would be substantially lower than these figures (on top of your caveats).

Last edited by Catch2200: 14/07/22

IVZ Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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