Hi all,
Thought I'd do some quick math on the upgraded CoS (Chance of Success) figures.
Quick reminder on probability math (in case anyone is rusty from high school) - will look at rolling a dice for simplicity's sake:
Single roll:Probability of getting a 1 on one roll = 1/6 or 0.1666 or 16.66%
Probability of not getting a 1 on one roll = 1 - 1/6 = 5/6 or 0.8333 or 83.33%
Multiple rolls:Probability of not getting a 1 on two rolls = 5/6 x 5/6 = 25/36 or 0.6944 or 69.44%
Probability of getting at least 1 on two rolls = 1 - (5/6 x 5/6) = 1 - 0.6944 = 0.3055 = 30.55%
^this last one is what we're interested in - i.e., chance of success in at least one of the stacked targets. Note - does
not equal 1/6 + 1/6 = 33.33%. That would imply rolling a dice 6 times would give 100% chance of success of getting a 1 (not true).
Looking at the updated CoS figures (except from ann):
I have added CoF (Chance fo Failure) numbers below for the sake of calculation (i.e., chance of not rolling a 1, as above).
Using the more conservative ERCE numbers, the CoS of hitting gas / condensate in
at least one of the stacked targets is ~67%. Starting to look pretty compelling!
Of course, these figures are all estimates with no calibration wells and no 3D siesmic, but take from it what you will.
Cheers & GLTAH,
DR
