Im curious as to how Mobile came up with such specific data...

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srood

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14/07/22

09:00

Post #: 62527067
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Originally posted by DigitalRoman: ↑

Hi all,

Thought I'd do some quick math on the upgraded CoS (Chance of Success) figures.

Quick reminder on probability math (in case anyone is rusty from high school) - will look at rolling a dice for simplicity's sake:

Single roll:
Probability of getting a 1 on one roll = 1/6 or 0.1666 or 16.66%
Probability of not getting a 1 on one roll = 1 - 1/6 = 5/6 or 0.8333 or 83.33%

Multiple rolls:
Probability of not getting a 1 on two rolls = 5/6 x 5/6 = 25/36 or 0.6944 or 69.44%
Probability of getting at least 1 on two rolls = 1 - (5/6 x 5/6) = 1 - 0.6944 = 0.3055 = 30.55%

^this last one is what we're interested in - i.e., chance of success in at least one of the stacked targets. Note - does not equal 1/6 + 1/6 = 33.33%. That would imply rolling a dice 6 times would give 100% chance of success of getting a 1 (not true).

Looking at the updated CoS figures (except from ann):

I have added CoF (Chance fo Failure) numbers below for the sake of calculation (i.e., chance of not rolling a 1, as above).

Using the more conservative ERCE numbers, the CoS of hitting gas / condensate in at least one of the stacked targets is ~67%. Starting to look pretty compelling!

Of course, these figures are all estimates with no calibration wells and no 3D siesmic, but take from it what you will.

Cheers & GLTAH,

DR

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Im curious as to how Mobile came up with such specific data above? I wouldn't have thought it possible to extract via seismic alone? In any event it does provide confidence in an overall elevated cos. I dont believe it would have taken the 200 horizon into account either.

IVZ Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Im curious as to how Mobile came up with such specific data...

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Im curious as to how Mobile came up with such specific data...

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