A lot of strange stuff happening in the small end of the market at the moment due primarily to tax loss selling. Who in their right mind is going to pay the tax man more then they have to and if you've bought PIQ at $1.40 and taken a profit elsewhere, well you're gonna prob crystallise your losses and hope to buy back in cheaper, assuming you can down ramp the stock enough to do so.
Been in this story a while so hoping to clear up some of your q's for the benefit of all readers....Many of PIQ's peers (BD1, RHY) went on solid runs at the start of the year and they have all come back - other peers like GSS and AT1 have just continued to drop - and still PIQ has the least demanding valuation out of this group, even when all stocks were at their highs in Feb-March. Furthermore, RENX/RNLX is close to all time high, commanding a ~$2 bn val and IMO PIQ is superior to Renalytix in every way - the market can fickle, we all know that, but if you had sold RENX as soon as it had doubled you would left a lot of money on the table.
- Rapid rise in share price (the stock reached a SP level too high for it's risk profile based on the below IMO).SPECULATIVE This is my personal opinion, and why I exited the stock, not speculative.
PromarkerD Mass Spec test was launched initially and found to be too technical hence why PIQ developed and is commercialising the PromarkerD Immunoassay test. The PD immunoassay is able to easily and cheaply used in standard labs worldwide. The only deals done thus far for the Immunoassay are Italy and Israel. Refer to March investor presentation - says first sales this Qtr so fingers crossed for the next few weeks. I can't remember what other announcements PIQ made but they have run through why Mass Spec had limited adoption and why Immunoassay is going to be easier to adopt and is thus attracting significant interest.
- PromarkerD flopping in all jurisdictions it has launched in - no reason provided by Richard - just radio silence. VALID POINT BUT COVID IS WORLD FOCUS Are you saying COVID is the reason for the flops?
When have you ever seen a big Pharma jump early? In any case, Janssen Collaboration was always a two stage process, I understand results are due soon.
- No licencing deal with Jansen following the supposedly good result (I was lead to beleive that folloiwng this validation, PIQ would start selling in US). JANSEN HAS NOT FINISHED YET FOR DEAL Why not?
Ongoing scientific validation is exactly what good life-science companies do - the more peer review publications (validation) the better - I'd be worried if there was a lack of continued validation/peer review and acceptance. Suggest you look at the conference schedule from the recent Qtrly, not many other ASX listed healthcare companies can boast a similar amount of KOL engagement.
- New "validations" keep coming out randomly. How many times does it need to be validated? NONSENSE Look at the previous 2-3 years, all the validations that just kept being announced randomly. Not nonsense.
Go ask all the companies you invest in for their business plans! Seriously, route to market (or what you call Business Plan) is detailed in their investor presentation page 10. Maybe it is hard to understand the route to market and sales, but obviously, partnerships/licensing and KOL engagement is going to drive sales and on that basis PIQ has already done two deals (for the immunoassay) and has flagged more to come.
- Lack of business plan - it seems they are just aimlessly ticking some boxes here and there, but how these boxes link, or how many more boxes need to be ticked? Anyones guess since PIQ don't tell you - do they not know themselves?
SOUNDS LIKE MORE NONSENSE Please point me to the business plan.
Junior life-science companies rarely give forecasts for cashflow. Its pretty hard to forecast when and what cash flow will come from a completely novel test that 1/10th of the world's population could potentially use?? But I dare say it will be large when it does come. I don't even think Renalytix has provided timing and forecasts for whatever cashflows they think they could get.
- No indication on timelines for cash flow from PromarkerD. TRUE BUT WE WAIT FOR JANSEN Refer to above question RE Jansen. And also what about cash flow from other jurisdictions? Surly it isnt dependant on Jansen? Or is it Jansen or nothing?
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