Ann: Province Announces Positive Scoping Study, page-67

I was interested in the production rate from the scoping study of 550,000 tonne of H₂ per year. This is more than I hoped or expected and shows the renewable energy potential of the project site. With PRL's 50 per cent share, the annual Ebitda revenue is $1.7 billion per year at today's hydrogen price of $5 per kg and $750million if and when H₂ falls to $2 per kg, which is where it needs to get to.

With a price/earnings ratio (PE) of 8, the share price with a future H₂ price of $2/kg = $6 billion / 1.1 billion shares on issue = $5.45 per share. Allow a 50% discount for debt (including future capitalraise to raise the funds required for PRL's share of costs) and we're looking good for $2.70 per share once production starts.

These figures are deliberately conservative. Many companies in early stage production trade at PE multiples much larger than 8. For example, Lynas Corporation currently trades at 16 X its EBITDA.I know these figures are just my rough sketches and we have little knowledge of costs and the future dilution required to fund our share of development costs, I am more confident of my investment here than I was prior to the release of the scoping study.

I'm respectful that a number of posters have a contrary opinion and see things differently after yesterday's news as much of most of this is still crystal ball gazing without more information on costs and the conditions underpinning the joint agreement with TotalEren. But what I do know is that to make a lot of money in the market and set yourself up for life you need to take risk and invest as early as possible in technologies and projects like this. The scoping study provides me sufficient information to take this risk. I'm buying more. GLTAH.