ORR 0.00% 56.5¢ orecorp limited

Ann: PRU: Perseus announces intention to make takeover bid for O., page-6

  1. 122 Posts.
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    this is definitely stingy from PRU, but hardly a disaster, and hardly the end of the story. ORR BoD is still in team SVM; they are unlikely to change their allegiance for this skinny amount of premium even if its all cash. SVM meanwhile seems pot committed here, having restructured the deal a cpl of times, abandoned CLA, and sent out the documents; it seems to me they have at least one more bump in them. finally, PRU hasn't used 'best and final' language and can still restructure to offer some stock (which would be well received by most holders).

    i think the most likely outcome is SVM raises their bid, mostly stock, to say the 58-60c range - to show a premium to the new cash bid; and then PRU overbids best and final, maybe 55-60c cash with some equity consideration as a kicker, call it 65c or a bit more total consideration. an incremental 10c in equity here for PRU is de minimis (less than 2% of their market cap) and they have made it clear they want this project.

    still excellent risk/reward here imo even if it reopens 56c or so, as it should
 
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