Having seen a few strange unknowns pop up over the years, I will go with a little more margin and say 95% done deal and 2.5 months to receive the cash. If it falls through, I estimate a (possible generous) 40c SP.
(0.60 * 95%) + (0.40 * 5%) = 59c If you cross the spread today to buy at 0.555 today you are getting a 6.3% discount to the probability waited 59c
Annualised return of 30% (2.5 months)
I think you nailed it @madamswer, in the sense that it was probably a decent spot to sell opening at 57c and now at 55c the value is likely in holding for the deal to complete.
PTG Price at posting:
55.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
