Fair comments @MarkHGO
In my view, if any of the sequences you outline re interest rates falling prove to be correct, they will be the result of a weakening economy needing support rather than a strengthening economy emerging.
I think rates will drift lower because the economy will need support and employment will fall, along with inflation.
These are basically the conditions PTM outlined will favour their style in their presentation of the pie charts v fund performance. Whether that eventuates or not is really the issue.
PTM will outperform in softening markets almost certainly simply as a result that their flagship fund holds approx 10% - 20% short over most time periods. This very style factor has been a major contributor to their underperformance.
As a very long term investor, l put my money on the historical certainty that the worm always turns. The only uncertainty being its timing.
I also pay heed to Keynes alleged expression that the market may stay irrational longer than people remain solvent. My way of doing this is always be patient and always be cashed up, ready for the unexpected.
Each to their own and each to their means.
GLTASH
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