Investment performance Conditions were very similar to today back in 1999.
Warren Buffet was considered a fool investing in the "old economy" when the future was the Nasdaq. Even Stan Druckenmiller got sucked in by the new economy wave to be taught his harshest financial lesson and biggest financial loss.
I don't care about macro factors any more, they are beyond my pay grade and control.
As an absolute contrarian and value based investor, l invest in PTM funds now, just as l did in 1999. They always tend to protect capital first, in bouyant markets irrespective of the CIO. I want that. Do l feel good about Chinese exposures? No. But what on earth do l know about Chinese logistics, social media, domestic travel etc, that is why l use fund managers. Do they necessarily get it right? No, but when a market is concentrated and crowded in one sector and in one country, l suspect opportunities lies elsewhere. It is a matter of time.
My individual stock holdings would be somewhat unique. I don't own any bank shares nor do l want to, having outperformed the bank index by a multiple.
I dont look to be different, l simply find interesting opportunities in small, often dark places on the ASX. And yes, playing in the dark, l bump into many things l could have avoided, and that hurt my pride, more than my pocket. I stuff up an awful lot, but as l am accountable only to myself, it does not hurt. I wait, often years and make up for my errors many times over.
Fund managers are ranked against indices and peers. Now that is something very different. If you are wrong, your process is questioned, your smarts are questioned, your very existence is questioned. FUM comes in the good days and leaves in the bad, precisely on queue with people with short term time horizons. I really love them.
That cyclical flow, the new paradigm, the lost magic.....it all the same same old to me.
PTM will NEVER go to the wall, just as the world will never stop using fossil fuels. Each can be considerably less relevant but each has an asset base or reserves that is worth something.
The only uncertainties l genuinely worry about are, how much FUM can they still lose, will their investment positions outperform in the right time frame, how long will we wait for a corporate action and what price will it take for investors or management to sell.
Dividends must clearly be reduced to say 8cps per annum, which l was expecting already. This will be a catalyst for re pricing below $1 later this year, say just after the August, annual accounts.
With other stocks in play, l will not be fretting over PTM. I expect to be looking elsewhere.
For example, and just as one examply, when PDN was 10c 4 short years ago, where were the buyers then? U3O8 was $20lb and the industry was "gone". HC was full of the same light weight posters as are present on this board. Now l just pinch myself every time l sell a little parcel over $1.30 and the mob cannot have their appetite quenched.
GLTASH
Easter is a time of special significance for me, and my ageing peers. Yet l could not help but see some irony in the pilaging and scorn currently circling PTM.
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