Fair analysis, and general points well made.
Unfortunately, I disagree totally with the notion of opportunity cost as it fails to value opportunity lost.
It demands an investor know future outcomes and move accordingly.
You cannot have even the vaguest understand of my trading, as it is private. I only post snippets of what l do. This week PTM was very profitable for me with its crazy sell off on Monday to below $1.02 and 15%+ recovery on Friday, to over $1.18.
Strangely, l am satisfied with a 15% turnaround (profit) in a week, on a business l understand well. My trading lets me average down holdings without committing one incremental dollar, while it releases free cash, for the next trade.
FWIW PTM is now a very major allocation in my portfolio with well into the 7 digits in value at an average cost under $1.40.
I could not give a hoot about GQG as it a just another popular momentum play on the way up, waiting for something to go wrong and Joe Public to see they are not soothsayers, they are just cheap market price takers. I have seen this quite often over my career.
Those are the situations l avoid, as l know the in the end, my upside is capped and my downside is unlimited. Everyone looks smart when calls come in. Ever tracked Cathie Wood and her "successful" FUM build up?
l see much less risk buying unloved stocks where assets and IP are available at a discount. Although Work needs to be done, the machinery and capital is in place to do it. In the end, downside is capped and upside is unlimited.
l suppose that is just me. I back people when their backs are against the wall, more than down hill skiers.
l don't believe in diversification either. It is a kind of each way bet one makes becuase they dont really have any conviction in their asset allocation.
If l believe in an investment thesis l will back it in with total conviction and karge licks of capital. I alway get in too early and out too early but it means l will rarely lose.
Presently a 5% allocation to U308, 5 or so years ago, has grown into a 20% allocation today, despite me trimming holdings all the way, including this week. The mugs coming into the space, tell me it is time for me to ease out. That is what contrarians do.
Each to their own.
GLTASH. In my view, true believers who still hold should stay fat. There are a couple of exit doors available here and each at a much higher price to reward those with courage and patience.
To everyone else here with no skin in the game? Why on earth would l care.
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