PTX 0.00% 4.6¢ prescient therapeutics limited

The diagram of the cell therapy landscape posted by @wolfi...

  1. 192 Posts.
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    The diagram of the cell therapy landscape posted by @wolfi covers ~180 companies and many are prominent ones. I have heard there are about 900 world wide - so most have not been considered worthy by this research. For instance, IMU does not rate a place but Chimeric (CHM) and PTX does?

    Venture capitalists (VC's) are sitting on the fence waiting to see the winners that evolve out of this crowded field that have the platform, the highest efficacy, the lowest cost and the management skills to put it all together - before they put their money to work.
    The VC's are also saying that they expect about 1/3rd of these companies to fail shortly - some will survive if they merge/collaborate if they have something to contribute - but only a few will become the focus of the paradigm shift to become leaders of these new therapies.

    Remember, only about 7% of speculative stocks become mature profitable companies and most of the prominent companies work also fails in these periods of paradigm shifts - where incrementalism is useless.

    We have already experienced a general tech stock decline and the experts believe that like cell therapies, the front runners will prevail.
    It will be interesting how the cell therapies market and general tech market moves in the next year or so. The failures to come may still hold the SP's flat for a while.

    SYC has an expectation of the company to be significantly different in 5 years time - at a point when the initial OmniCAR clinical trials will be approaching approval. At this time a lot more will be known about the market and PTX potential to be far more accurate with SP estimates when the company will have most speculative aspects behind it. I.e. be a mature company versus its current starting the transition from a speculative one. Will it be 10 X SP in 5 years - or more? It would be nice for it to be 100 X SP in a decade.

    What will the SP do in these intervening 5 years? Who will survive the fallout? or how do you know if you are backing one of the duds? how will the general market influence SP? A lot of questions that only individuals can/must answer themselves as the large number of unknowns become known to influence decisions.

    I am personally backing PTX to be one of the winners and with a LT outlook expect to make exceptional profits after 5 years with current holdings, but expect some SP increase in the interim - but when will it start?. I had originally estimated that these exceptional profits would be starting about 2024 but have now revised that to 2027 and beyond. Therefore, I think it will now be about 2024 when we will see progressive SP growth.
    Unless CellPryme-A is a major financial contributor from the start - doubtful, there can only be a dribble of income from license fees etc. in the interim. Even if PTX 100 or PTX 200 is let go it will also take most of 5 years for any major contribution after only an initial modest cash injection or modest milestone funds.
    So any SP increase will have to be based on the expectation that PTX remains in the front of the wave because of data from the clinical trials - for there must be some considerable dilution from CR's/placements to pay for the much more expensive OmniCAR trials of our own and possibly a share of more collaborations.

    This then leads me to waiting for the big boys to turn up, the VC's to buy shares and/or participate in placement/s to show that we remain in contention and can pay for all this to occur. The TF collaboration is an indication that we have reached the attention of the big boys so now it is a waiting game IMO.

    In other words, I do not expect a 10 X SP increase in the next 18 months as many seem to believe and I hoped for a year ago. It could be bumpy but I doubt $0.15 will be seen again. I would be happy with $0.50 in 2 years and then have continued improvement from there as the clinical trials show promise and progress.
    I am convinced PTX will be involved in oncology and be profitable for a long time because of the OmniCAR platform and its covalent bond that puts it in front of the competition - at present. I also know many other cell therapy companies will fail to survive unless they have a niche attribute to have high efficacy for a specific cancer.
    I believe it is time for many that have cell therapy investments to take a reality check soon and be prepared to move to a winner or exit. All my opinion of course. I doubt that another paradigm shift will come from left field soon to knock PTX out of contention but I will keep an eye out and be prepared to exit PTX in profit.

    While I will wait until the big boys arrive to buy more at the next major SP growth wave - most likely along with the start of progressive SP growth based on data, others can expect great LT results by buying now for the SP is undervalued versus being overvalued a year ago. It may take some time to see the progressive SP rises.
    Traders will be able to have fun throughout - if their expectations are realistic.

    If I am wrong and the SP is $10 in 2 years then we will all be happy - however I am prepared to wait and watch as the company develops its potential. The real prize is 8 to 10 years of profit for the OmniCAR patent expires in 2037 if FDA approval is obtained in 2027 and beyond for increasing numbers of cancers. I expect by 2037 that PTX will be so ingrained in the oncology field that it would be difficult to have a competitor to nudge us aside when the patent expires.

    While we may become vulnerable to a takeover that could restrict LT profits - some actually want it to happen - it will be beyond our control.
    SYC has said it would cost them dearly for even now the competition would be severe. Once the data from the trials start and are as expected a takeover would become increasingly expensive for the buyers. Another known unknown.
    I am sure it will not be IMU that wins this prize!













 
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