Hard to predict ahjay, as always here! Is ASCO still part of the sales pitch/dance card, or is it the curtain raiser to a largely done deal on a licensing agreement, or something bigger? Vivo makes a good point about lack of new institutional holders - they usually smell imminent M&A action well before retail does and pile in first. Though the next round of form 13Fs (tute ownership disclosures covering Apr/May/Jun action) are unfortunately not due until Aug 14 so we are pretty blind to who might’ve climbed into shares/the US ADRs over the past fortnight.
I do get a sense that PRs have been deliberately timed/methodically lined up over the past few weeks to lift volume & price and create fresh momentum. That tweet of the Nasdaq billboard sort of confirmed this for me (there is a paid marketing element to these things). Immutep is imo clearly looking to be noticed in the US or to create leverage at the pointy end of a negotiation. And there surely has to be more uplift still to come because the shelf registration is not even effective yet and, for raising at the market via the shelf, the price will need to be higher and sustained to minimise dilution/discount. Maybe this trigger is the “more mature data” you reference. I don’t think the company is keen to be selling a block of new shares at undervalued levels, particularly when Marc has commented on the grossly undervalued SP frequently over the past year.
Friday’s decline here might hopefully be just exhausted Aus holders or post-fizz profit takers counting on predictable IMM price action of the past, and not some wider signal. Perhaps also in part related to US uncertainty and the debt ceiling pantomime (which news reports suggest should be mostly resolved/deal struck by the time US markets open again on Tuesday after their Mon public holiday).
One of the next inevitable SEC filings will be a full Prospectus for the shelf. Maybe that will provide more hints? Like Joe, I don’t know which way this is going to roll next - whether simply selling on-market via the shelf once it’s effective, or if there is an equity component to a major deal utilising the shelf that will emerge post-ASCO. Signals suggest its more likely the latter (doing it in US ADRs and leaving the door wide open in preliminary docs about which way the shelf might be used) but we’ve all been counting on this for so long now it’s hard to place any reliance on hunches here!
The other wild card is whether this is all part of a strategic move to shift Immutep primarily to the US, including its primary bourse listing. I assume the only thing keeping us in Aus is our history, future use of accumulated tax losses, and the odd R&D grant for a local component to a clinical trial. Other than that it’s hard to know why we are still tied down to the ASX when US/Europe is where all the action is, stockmarkets more liquid, Big Pharma deals are done, fresh capital is located, and our staff and operations are all primarily now based (France, Germany). If Immutep was looking to move then creating a whole flurry of attention there first would be exactly what you would want to do, along with issuing new capital in that location (e.g. US$100m shelf in US ADRs - they are notably not ASX ordinaries being proposed).
I guess we’ll see what unfolds next. Keep well!
IMM Price at posting:
31.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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