PYC-001 for Autosomal Dominant Optic Atrophy (ADOA) has 9,000 - 16,000 patients X USD $150,000 p.a. = USD $1.35B - USD $2.4B p.a.
PYC-002 treating Phelan-McDermid Syndrome (a severely debilitating condition for affected children and families) has ~28,000 patients X USD $150,000 p.a. = USD $4.2B p.a.
Total estimated income per year = USD $6.3B - USD $8.1B (A$9.0B - A$11.5B) p.a.
This would translate into $2.83 - A$3.62 per share (42 - 54X of today's close at 6.7c) Had the share price been 20c, the multiple would have been watered down to 14 - 18X which be much less attractive. Now you see why the share price had been suppressed for the last 12 months.
If P/E Ratio is 10x which is modest for a biotech company with 3 FDA approved drugs plus Kidney/CNS drugs in the pipeline, that would imply a share price of $28 - A$36 and a market cap of A$90B - A$115B (comparable to BHP's market cap of A$129.6B with P/E Ratio of 38.50)
2. PYC’s RNA drug modality effectively reachesall regions of the brain
Page 34 of the "PYC Corporate Presentation - February 2023" says "The advantages of PYC’s next generation RNA drug (‘PPMO’) are clearly evident in animal models evaluating the ability of the RNA drug to engage its target in different regions of the brain relevant in PMS". No doubt this slide entices the audience to more forthcoming drugs targeting the brain. Brain diseases include ADHD, migraine, dementia, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy and multiple sclerosis just to name the common ones. Any one of these would bring in an addressable patient populations much more sizable than the current 3 drugs combined.
3. Executive & Board Members are from US and Australia
With the addition of the US and Australian flag annotating each board member is a clear sign of instant reckoning for US audiences.
4. The Grand Finale
The last slide has an interesting quotation:
“These [COVID] vaccines… are only the tip of the iceberg in the coming RNA medical technology revolution”
"Whether with short or long-form RNA, the key to their success in medicine is the delivery system – the nanoparticles that carry RNA towards their target. Without these, RNA therapeutics and vaccines would never have become a reality, as “naked” RNA is unable to enter cells and instead is rapidly broken down once injected. This is where nanomedicine – an area of particular strength here at UNSW - comes to the fore."
PYC Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
