Share
370 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 21
clock Created with Sketch. 18/03/19
16:11
Share
Originally posted by stanislar:
↑
The stock is typical of companies in start-up phase. Large investment phase, complexity in starting up, inevitable hiccups, fine tuning of new unproven plant, cost overruns and uncertainty over cash drain. Lynas was the perfect comparison, whoever made it. Why? because all these issues played out but ultimately once the market sees that the operation is not cash consuming the focus pivots to the strategic importance of the operation and the resource base. In Lynas' case it is as the only non-Chinese RE producer. SYR is a super long life, tier 1 cost asset with downstream value add potential (Louisiana), market share that is multiples of the next biggest player in a market that can can and should grow at above-normal growth rates for many, many years to come. It will be of strategic interest to the Chinese (who will see their supply competitiveness and supply security eroded) and for the Americans. The difficulty in getting production to this point at SYR has been a curse but only adds to the long term value of its market position. Have you any idea how difficult it will be and how long it will take for others to get to market now? What does that mean for cost of replicating what SYR has developed to date. I guarantee that if a South32 or a Chinese or a US industry player were offered SYR for a $billion right now in an uncontested take-over, they would bite of the hand of the seller. They could not begin to develop such a resource for that amount and industry players think much longer term - they would ride out the next 3 years or so of what may be marginal returns knowing that they will harvest the cashflows accruing from a dominant market position for many, many years to come.
Expand
Indeed. As i have said all along, at this low price and with US$55 million in cash and no debt, this is certainly is an attractice takeover target. Chinese would want it for their own strategic self interest while as with any takeover the board will try and entice competition to drive the price up. South 22 and Glencore being obvious suitors. Let's see - I can't see any near term driver of the price until August with a takeover.
Last edited by
Boges :
18/03/19
(20min delay)