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Ann: Q1 ARR $42.9m, confirms strong outlook, page-49

  1. 11,096 Posts.
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    To work out that the ARRs are bogus, just look at the historical ARR's provided, and then look at the actual revenue over the following 12 months, and add another 50% of the approximate growth rate over that following 12 months period to get a rough revenue figure you would expect. Not difficult!

    Look at the ARR for June 2018 of 15m. Then look at the revenue for the following 12 months of about $18.2m. And a growth rate of well over 200%, should have the revenue at $15m plus 200%/2 of $15m = $30m.

    Then there is the preceding quarters ARR of 11.2m. The next twelve months revenue only totals about 9.5m, let along allowing for a growth rate of say 130% to get an expected revenue number of $18.5m or so.

    You could try dividing the ARR they provide in half, but without knowing the basis for that number, you are deluding yourself.

    Even if the end of quarter months are complete outliers, or they are counting the retail end purchase price, and not the revenue, it is a useless metric in and of itself.

    Happy to have it carefully explained to me that i am wrong, and the reason for that.
 
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