Why is there such a large variance between revenue $25M and receipts $19M?
They tried to cover up the lower numbers between pcp last quarter stating revenues due in June were to land in September. We're now seeing a larger example of this in the September quarter.
The suggestion cash at September of $9.8M is "strong", contradicts the cash that was held in June which was $14M.
Encouraging to see the income stream is sustained with less COVID programs. This announces to the market the pharma's continue to use MedAdvisor for other vaccine initiatives. We're not a one hit wonder during pandemics. Management reacted and pivoted with diversification across new brands and categories.
They typically hit the jackpot in the December quarter with $41M revenue last year which increases the cash balance to a more reasonable level. Do lagging receipts then hit December and they beat $41M revenue? Hard to tell as receipts were up in June, but down in September. They do state 79% of FY24 revenues are already contracted at the time of this announcement with only 64% contracted in FY23. That's a 15% increase, so perhaps ~$45M arrives in December?
The share price was still at the Guildlink CR levels this time last year and jumped from the mid-teens to 30c+ after December numbers were published in January. Will it happen again? It's the June, September and March quarters that need to prove the current ~40% revenue growth is sustainable. This 4C missed that mark.
I notice ALC have hit some headwinds - delayed their 4C and announced a CR at 25% discount to the current share price. It's tough out there and perhaps MDR are lucky to have chosen the right continent in the US and acquisition, whereas ALC seem to have stagnated in the UK with Silverlink. VHT have reported four quarters of positive net operating cash flows over the past 12 months, so are not obligated by the ASX to report quarterly, so only half and full year numbers now. I look forward to MDR reaching this milestone. I'm intending to do another income, cash, costs, SOI, Top 20 comparison between MDR, ALC, VHT, M7T but I lost all my previous data when I wiped and returned my old work laptop. Note to self - save to cloud.
The recent decline in share price over the last weeks and volume in the sell queue is probably more reflective of market conditions than the state of the books. Show us some "strong" inbound numbers which significantly bolsters the piggy bank in December and we hopefully get a lift back to a valuation that proves and commits to the YoY ~40% trajectory.
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