Absolutely no BS on my part. I am only referring to...

Absolutely no BS on my part. I am only referring to announcements to draw reasonable conclusions. Please correct anything I say that is wrong, for the benefit of all readers.

The last guidance update was on 28 July for Q3 production was to average around 4,150 with recent drilling.

What we know:

- Rate at beginning of quarter: 4,100 (4 July update ann)
- Rate at end of July: 4,300 (28 July qtrly investor pres - the prodn uplift is from Gemini 8 + 9 coming online)
- 600 boepd was added with these 5 wells this qtr, however note that 200 of that is from Gem 8 + 9 which came online in July.

So excluding declines for the quarter, total production would be 4,700 after this drilling program.

Guidance of 4,150 average production for the quarter is unchanged, so you can estimate the implied decline rate:

The quarter started at 4,100 boepd, and the guided average for the quarter is 4,150, so the implied exit rate must also be fairly close to that amount also. So the difference between the implied exit rate and the total of 4,700 above is likely the decline. To clarify: I am estimating 600 decline for the quarter, not 6 weeks. (600/4100 = 14% for the quarter - looks to be way more than the c. 20% annual rate stated in the investor presentations).

I'll need to see production guidance upgrades to be convinced the decline is not so high.