i agree a corporate stackplot showing decline and newcapitalwells is constructive
all the well data is publicly available
conventional brooks sunburst wells decline the least of all our wells
they spurt early less, and decline less...about 15% (annual, and Ip90 to IP365 pretty similar decline)
glauc spurt harder early but decline more...about 25%
sparky are inbetween...about 20%
so glauc decline most, then sparky, then sunburst
these are way less than the 50% US shale declines that are so common
gem 3 was 500, but as jordy mentioned its not our biggest sunburst...and a few other operators are getting some 500 sunbursts
so about 2/20 = 10% sunburst are that good when in the middle of a good pool
its those round the edge of pools that are poor, and the 3d seismic shows that, so ce1 knows whats expected, but never sure till its drilled
ce1 corporate decline is less than the average peer (see gear with a sig higher decline)
decline is not our challenge...
well variability at brooks is more our challenge as you note with some big wells and others small (10% big, but 10% less than 100 boe ip90)
while gear provides that good figure of stacked decline, they generally dont go into detail on performance individual wells
wells vary everywhere get used to it
earlier guidance was on the average well, but the average was too high for guidance because of the hi production well outliers
they are now guiding sunburst at a level where 80% of historic wells are higher
but some under-guide and over-perform is what we need
what we also need is more sparky wells
1 year ago ce1 guided 6 sparky wells in 2022, for >2400 boepd increase
then we had the sand problem, and they were all put in hold to issue clarified
leading to lots of brooks, with their variability
as per last news, we are now drilling the big sparky wells again, which are so important for getting the boe up
as jordy said in interview...5000 boepd isnt much of a stretch now
if they do x3 sparky in q4, ill call 5500 boe rate by end of year, as they promised at merger time
and if all good, x3 sparky more in q1 2023
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