I think the concern here as I had written previously when I owned this, is the upside/downside risk. Current share price is 54 cents. Lets say Lew/whoever offers a 40% premium to this (optimistic), that takes you to 75 cents. The downside, however, is 0.
The risk remains the balance sheet. The financial statements that are available look much better that they will be at the next announcement. The book value will be slashed. They will have many under performing brands. Given that, you can see that the dividend may not just be slashed, but ceased altogether. How long then before a capital raising?
The Lowy family could see all this coming. They knew this was no cyclical retail headwind for them to ride out. They had been retail landlords for decades. Those guys sold out. That spoke to me big time as to the future of department store retailers.
For me, it was about learning from my Oroton blunder. I lost a hefty lot on that. I have learnt that as a small shareholder we have very little influence or power when a company goes "belly up". I too have read Toby Carlilse and understand the concept of "mean reversion". Nevertheless sometimes there is no "mean reversion".
The balance sheet is you guide to safety. Watch it carefully at the next announcement.
Good luck to those who still hold...
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85.0¢ |
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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6 | 81388 | 0.840 |
4 | 44547 | 0.830 |
1 | 40000 | 0.820 |
1 | 12250 | 0.815 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.855 | 2465 | 2 |
0.860 | 37238 | 4 |
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