I think the Q&A in the conference call was a useful way of gauging what the market's worried about.
Lot's of discussion about the trial result.
A question as to whether TLX250 would get approved in time for the October pass-through meeting.
The usual question about R&D spending.
A question about contingent consideration (this is all a bit complicated but the half-yearly has the details, page 28 onwards, there's a lot of it.)
My guess is that some in the market thought: short term revenue stabilising. Medium term revenue growth may be delayed. Long term revenue growth unsure. Expenses still going up. So they hit the exit.
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It's certainly the case that Illucix will be the only revenue source for the next year at least- quite possibly more.
So it will be interesting to see how market growth goes in that time. If they managed growth of ~10% a quarter for the next couple of quarters I would be very pleased. I'd by pleased with a linear growth of $US10m/q frankly. CB put a lot of emphasis during the conference call that (a) theirs was the best product and (b) TAM would continue to grow. They're currently headed for 30% market share and $US100m, and any improvement on that would be very helpful to the share price.
It was also mentioned that other jurisdictions were more or less on track (Brazil a bit delayed). If these (particularly Europe) start to kick into gear in 2024 that will help too.
The company has very clearly decided to emphasise long term opportunities and having a broad program over short term optics. But, at some stage, they are going to have to demonstrate a commitment to growing outright profit as much as growing the company.
Just a reminder, they got kicked 15% last quarterly too.
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- Ann: Q3 2023 Business Update to Accompany Quarterly Results
Ann: Q3 2023 Business Update to Accompany Quarterly Results, page-81
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