The challenge here is that although in the surface this looks like a good (great class leading) product and we continue to see them winning contracts which appear material (88km & 40km pipeline seem pretty impressive to me), mgmt have not flagged either of these in an announcement to the ASX (so $$$ wise would not be material), nor have they come out indicating any change to their guidance (around May or even early June would have been the time IMO if they had something different to communicate).
That means that revenues will be as they previously indicated (~28-29m) and I suspect the above contracts are just part and parcel of the ~18m they generate in FFT/Detect. The remainder will come from Access (~2m) and GJD/Illuminate (~8m).
A ~50m EV company (~55m MC less cash of ~5m) is going to have to generate more than ~2-3m in EBITDA on an annual basis (which is that ~28m in revenues will generate IMO) so they are going to have to show some real growth in both revenues in these existing products, but also show some progress on Aura AI/IQ and better still the recurring revenues.
Having said that, they have provided guidance that the baseline (FY2023?) will have operating costs of ~15-18m (FY2023 based on 1H23 will get to ~18m), and an EBITDA margin of under 10% (so again the ~28m in revenues and ~3m in EBITDA). Then then grow revenues and EBITDA margins over the next 3 years, so if they achieve that, it will be another 6-12 mths before we start seeing some real growth
AVA Price at posting:
21.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)