Europe and North American auto makers are just waking up to the EV Grim Reaper at their door. They will use Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH) in their high nickel batteries (like NMC 911) as driving range and charge rate will matter for US truck customers (F Series, RAM, Rivian and Cyber etc with 200kWh+ batteries) and European luxury/performance brands like BMW, Mercedes, Porsche.
'Premium' Asian brands like Hyundai, Honda, Mazda and Toyota will also be high users of LiOH as they need to differentiate their passenger and light commercial products from the 'cheap and nasty' Chinese brands.
The asian disruptors of the 60s to 90s are well schooled in the art of affordable luxury.
LFP, based upon Lithium Carbonate (Li2CO3), is no longer cheap battery chemistry. Demand for LiOH will balance out with Li2CO3. Refer Benchmark index below.
High nickel chemistries using LiOH are infinitely more recyclable than LFP chemistries using Li2CO3. In a closed loop economy where a NMC batteries have US$7,500 of recycled metal value with recovery cost of sub $3,000/t (@ circa US$20,000/t nickel and US$17,000/t lithium) and LFP is a hazardous waste, in a perpetual deficit market, regulators and commodity traders will shape the total cost of ownership for consumers to maximise economic returns across the life of an asset.
MIN is perfectly placed with up to 95,000tpa of LiOH in 2025 and.... barely a cent of this near term revenue is reflected in the current share price.
Once this revenue starts to hit the books from May 2021, watch the analyst SP re-rates roll in.
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