Ann: Q3 FY24 Trading Update, page-7

This "very strong earnings growth" is off the back of very low lows. The big questions are how much it will grow from here, and how much profit can it generate. Pre-Covid the profit margins were around 10%. I'd be very surprised if they could generate pre-Covid revenue by the end of next year. That peaked at $161M in FY19, and looking at their reported revenue in FY20, revenue looked down YTD to FEB 2020.

So, let's say they can generate $150M in FY25 at a 10% margin, then they're making a $15M profit. Without an aggressive acquisition plan, I would argue that high growth from that point is optimistic. And being in an extremely highly volatile industry, earnings multiples would probably be single digit. So, IF all of that is correct, the company could be worth about $90M-$140M at the end of FY25. Outstanding shares are at 755M, which would put fair value at somewhere between 12c to 19c. Obviously that changes dramatically if someone argues that multiples should be much higher.

If this was a private company up for sale, at the moment it's probably only valued around $50M at best. I think management are trying to use these skewed high percentages to get an unrealistic cash-out.