I think re the revenue causing a sp rise there are other things that might, like a BD deal, proof that it works, more and more realities that increase confidence this will work. I feel it is already beginning to happen. Rohan’s statement that we might se a very rapid rerate in the sp and it might not be that far off went a bit under the radar, and the “amount” of the rerate wasn’t specified but it did seem that he thinks it will be more than most people imagine, so in my line of thinking thats more than 10x. The 4th drug is in kidney disease and we dont know what yet but it has the potential to be helping 1% of the planet. 10B revenue is the kind of number the big boys want to play in our sandpit with kinda stuff.
RH also talked, again, about the not 10% but 60% probability these drugs will work. I think he thinks it’s more like “ they will work unless something comes out of left field”, so thats about 95% probability. There’s your 10x (ok 9.5x) in sp straight off, and you have to do that for each drug eventually…. So, approx 40x in say 10 years. $2.40 . And we cant stay at 6c until 2032 so somewhere in between it’s got to start going up. And in 10 years we will have another 6 drugs if they do one a year, so you see where i am going with this…. The rerate is well overdue and soon enough something will give.
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- Ann: Q3 Investor Call 27 September 2023
Ann: Q3 Investor Call 27 September 2023, page-18
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