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Did you manage to get a handle on the revenue model? this has...

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nostaj

1 Posts.

04/06/24

14:31

Post #: 74157165
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Originally posted by mcgriff: ↑

Following the IB you get the sense an earnings guidance upgrade isn't too far away. A lot of momentum building, not only in the existing customer base but also in organic growth too.

The team couldn't hope for a better economic backdrop so if they can't make serious hay in the next few quarters then there's a strategy or business model problem.

Thought they presented well today. Very optimistic about the near and mid term. A few other notes:
- Q3 always tough. Fewer BDs and lots of annual leave. Bear in mind the majority of the business is not yet digital and requires human interface
- Digital GP% around 80%, and getting to a point where its growth is impacting (dragging up) overall margins
- Market scanning for inorganic, new-geo opportunities ongoing and may appear sooner rather than later (although some coyness around timing)
- Increased regulation a
- Investors have inquired about underlying profitability - i.e. if CA and growth was switched off what would things look like. Answer was 'materially more profitable', but that is not at all what management is focused on. For now, it's about growth and investment into customer acquisition. Expect that this will mean cash earnings and EBITDA % will remain lower than it could be (certainly vs a steady-state case) for some time, and don't expect divvies
- Achieving a 20% pcp growth rate is significant. Maintaining it will be even more so. The 'old' SaaS rules (e.g. R40, CAC/LTV) all still apply and a 20% pcp rev growth rate will pique investor interest. Even better if you can generate rather than burn cash while doing so.

Overall walking away with stronger conviction than ever. Maintain the 20% and we hit $11m rev in 4Q, and $12m+ in 1Q25, with GP% improvements as digital outperforms. Could easily see $6-8m EBITDA in FY25, even with ongoing investment into CA/growth.

I would be interested in understanding the revenue model. Is it only fee-for service, or is there a fixed component to it as well?

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Did you manage to get a handle on the revenue model? this has just come up on my watchlist and I'm keen to understand more.

CCR Price at posting: 25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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