AVA 4.55% 10.5¢ ava risk group limited

forget them getting guidance wrong, again, for a moment because...

  1. 453 Posts.
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    forget them getting guidance wrong, again, for a moment because that is just frustrating and can impact short term movements but as long as they have a good legitimate reason for missing guidance (i.e. sales moving to next quarter) it is not overly relevant to share price (although not great for shareholder confidence as it keeps happening & they could have updated it). Have their previous reasons stacked up eventually?

    the question is what is the right price for
    $30m rev
    $15m in the bank
    Uptick in quarter
    Covid Impacted
    Some certainty but still uncertainty over the bigger potential around Aura IQ
    Funnel & forecast for next few years
    The slim potential of mega deals like IMOD or the lock deal to propel its growth
    All the cost fundamentals

    I personally have no idea. I am still here because it has become personal, it's fun and i know what would happen to my business if i had $15m in the bank to execute. They have enough great products that they should experience massive growth eventually if they can maintain that cash in the bank. Could be 1 - 4 years (1 based on expectation, 4 based on realisation) before we are properly rewarded for our patience. Personally i don't want to see anymore dividends for a while although that could be viewed as confidence on their part

 
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