AVA ava risk group limited

Don't want to spoil the party, but FY24 revenues of $30.2m is...

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    Don't want to spoil the party, but FY24 revenues of $30.2m is below the bottom range they mentioned after 1H24 results (not material at 0.2m, but its not within guidance range and even if you ignore that, at the bottom of that range).

    It is also starting to look like Illuminate was not a good purchase - ~6-7m per year in revenues of hardware which I is at best marginally profitable, and arguably would not add anything significant to their offering (they could use a 3rd party product and plug/play if a client was really needed by the client - I'm just not sure it offers anything unique to detect)

    As for Access, this is a little more connected and some of their offering applies to the clients they are selling fibre to, but not a strong enough adjacency to warrant time/effort by mgmt

    If they really wanted to accelerate, they need to perhaps get rid of Access and Illuminate and focus on Detect along with the services on (software to manage what the fibre is detecting with a view to ongoing updates.....perhaps they don't have the technical knowledge, but surely having installed this over hundreds of sites, they have a pretty decent view of how clients are monitoring this and how to extract the best out of it rather than having to do proof of concepts repeatedly).

    Still seems a tall mountain to climb to get to revenues of $42.7m in FY25 (this is lower end of guidance and represents over 40% growth.....nothing about any of this points to them getting close to that.
 
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