What he means by "advance into the clinic" is begin human...

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21/07/22

11:29

Post #: 62648906
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Originally posted by triage: ↑

Agree, impressive. I do have one concern and a couple of queries.

At first blush I worry that Luke Reid is being a tad cocky with this comment: "In FY23 we will advance into the clinic with our lead IBD asset MAP315 which we expect to generate significant value for shareholders".

I seem to recall seeing claims that only about 6% of products that make it through phase 1 clinical trial go onto being commercialised (and from memory about 40% of phase 2 and 80% of phase 3 end up making it to market). MAP315 is not even at the start line for a phase 1 trial. Unless LR knows something that he is not telling us I think "hope" rather than "expect" would have been closer to reality.

A couple of questions: I wonder how much of that revenue figure for Q4FY22 was from sale of testing services and how much was from sales to research clients. It seems to me that the the testing services are scalable but the research clients not so much.

Also given that the new distributorship arrangements were only bedded down at the end of the June quarter I wonder how much of a revenue boost is expected in coming quarters from the new distributors and the new product. I can find no guidance at all in either the quarterly or the presentation deck let alone the sort of estimates that Lefevre kindly shared a while back.

And finally, an observation: for every set of test data they get approval to keep and use not only do they get more revenue dollars they also get more grist for their AI. I follow a few companies that claim to be trying to use big data to disrupt normal order. Most likely some are pretenders and some will be failures. But Microba seems as well placed as any with its microbiome analysis skills and its growing dataset of both health and bugs.

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What he means by "advance into the clinic" is begin human clinical trials, not commercialise which would still be several years away and uncertain as you point out.

And I agree, some breakdown of revenues and, in particular, guidance would have been helpful.

MAP Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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