Actually the next fin report is the full year (not a half year) by end of August.
Bear with me. I show a couple last half yr snips below.
Recall the 1HFY24 they pushed resources to product ramp up, hence were much lower in services revenue/profit.
By looking at these snips, can one say the underlying business, per half year, is revenue between $5mill and $6mill? And a gross profit between $2.5 mill and $3mill. (we are excluding 1HFY24 as an outlier)
Now we know our revenue for the last half year 2HFY24 is $8 mill (the "back to usual" $5 mill, plus 2x$1.5 mlll IP sugar hits). We know the OPEX for the $3 mill sugar hit is NIL!!! So that tells me the gross profit should be "the usual" $2.5 to $3 mill PLUS fully the IP revenue of $3 mill. Therefore the gross profit for the last half year 'should be' $5.5 to $6 mill.
The question... will that big gross profit be enough to move EBITDA to POSITIVE. If they can show that, the share price will rocket based on fundamental traders seeing that - a positive EBITDA in 2HFY24. Also, note this $1.5 mill revenue per Q, at nil cost, will continue until the entire $10 mill IP payment is allotted. So for the next 4 2/3rd quarters
My eye says we will be 'just a little' EBITDA positive in the just completed 2nd half. And for the FY24-25 will be fully EBITDA positive (as the rest of the IP is allotted, and assuming normal underlying business). So the key is, over the next 12 months will other 'good stuff' happen to KEEP the company EBITDA profitable. That is in year FY25-26.
LDX Price at posting:
4.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
