Ann: Q4 FY24 Results Pack, page-15

I've just had a chance to look over the release.

Interesting to note the share price ended at the lower end of the daily range.

Interesting takeaways;
4th Qtr. results were quite good
• Record Net Sales of US$1,004.9 Million, up 9%
• Adjusted EBITDA of US$280.8 Million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.9%
• Adjusted EBIT of US$232.5 Million, with an Adjusted EBIT margin of 23.1%
• Adjusted Net Income of US$174.2 Million, up 19%

AUD EPS = ~$2.42 Current share price = $46.67 Current P.E = ~19.5.

Historically, (last 10 years or so) JHX has had P.E rations between 17 and 45. This might suggest that it is currently trading at the low end of its range. This is looking at the past however. What are earnings going to look like moving forward?

Well, the guidance suggests;

And next Qtrs. to be between US $155m and $175m net income (this qtr was 174.2m)
So, at best, they are guiding for flat growth, at worst, they are guiding for a ~11.5% decline. (Hence 15% share price decline today).

Months ago, many had said we would see 3-4 interest rate cuts this year. I erred on the side of caution and thought we'd be lucky to see 1. That being said, I would say with almost 100% certainty we would see an interest rate cut in Q1 CY 2025. This should provide some support to global markets.

I'd love to get JHX at $40, and I'll be waiting a few days to see where the share price settles.


$40 was a good support/resistance level for the past 12 months. Lets see where this goes.