Geez, I'm going beautifully - managed to paste the Citi research from this time last year. What a difference a year makes! The latest is below:
Waiting for operational momentum to improve
Change in disclosure drives ARR beat — LiveTiles’ ARR declined -$1.4 million qoq
to $53.8 million, with the stronger AUD having a $4.4 million impact. While 4Q ARR
was better than our forecasts of $52.8 million, this was driven by a change in
disclosure, with LiveTiles reclassifying certain support revenue as ARR in 4Q20.
While the net growth in customers was positive, this implies that like for like, constant
currency ARR growth was weaker than expected.
New product architecture and sales pipeline commentary encouraging — While
4Q growth was negatively impacted by Enterprise customers delaying decision
making, LiveTiles’ commentary on the pipeline was encouraging, with management
pointing to strong demand for its employee mobile communications/pocket intranet
offering (CYCL’s Condense). Further, LiveTiles has refreshed its product portfolio and
combined its core LiveTiles’ products with Wizdom and CYCL’s offerings into four
main products/solutions. While we expect trading conditions to improve as economies
open up, we remain cautious on the near term outlook with IT budgets under pressure
and forecast ARR grows +$2 million to $55.8 million in 1Q21e.
Better 4Q in terms of cashflow, but are the cost cuts sustainable? — Underlying
operating cash flow of $1.2 million in 4Q was stronger than expected, driven by
stronger cost control (as well as a stronger A$). While June is typically a stronger
quarter for cash collection, cash receipts was also stronger. However, we forecast a
cash outflow of -$2 million in 1Q21e as we expect opex to increase going forward
which reflects employee hours and salaries returning to 100% at the end of 4Q as
well as increased spend on marketing to launch the refreshed product portfolio.
Maintain Neutral/High Risk — LiveTiles trades on an undemanding EV/FY21e
Rev multiple of 3x and a permanent increase in work from home could accelerate
adoption of LiveTiles’ digital workplace solutions over the medium term. However,
we maintain our Neutral/High Risk rating given near-term risks to bookings and
potential for increased churn as government stimulus is eased/removed. New target
price is $0.30. which reflects medium term earnings upgrade driven by lower costs.
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