While financial models often represent a bit of a fool's errand, in this case I think the analyst does not have too many hairy-chested assumptions behind his FY2025 forecasts, noting that:
1.) more than one-quarter of the analyst's top-line growth forecast is underwritten by the acquisition that was just made.
2.) He/she has the Gross Profit Margin compressing by a full 210bp, from 55.3% in FY2024, to $23.2% in FY2025).
3.) CoDB to rise by 17%. Even stripping out an assumed $1.5m of CoDB that comes with the acquired business), that still implies double-digit rise in CoDB in the legacy business.
So I think that the analyst's projected NPAT figure of +$2m for FY2025 is well within the realms of likelihood/probability.
And I don't think the market is today even remotely close to viewing PPL as a plus-$2mpa-NPAT-growing-at-several-tens-of-percent company.
When it does finally come round to it, I very much doubt the Enterprise Value of the company will remain at $23m, i.e.. a mere 10.5x P/E multiple.
