Ann: Qantas Group FY21 Investor Presentations, page-2

One only had to read the first few paragraphs to see an early example of 'spin' from QAN.

It said:

Periods of open domestic borders in the second half saw significant cash generation by Qantas and Jetstar,
which helped the Group to reduce net debt from $6.4 billion in February 2021 down to $5.9 billion by the end
of June.

But what this omits is that the annual report a year ago (FY 20) disclosed net debt of $4.7 billion, so '$5.9 billion' is about a 25.5 per cent rise in a year.

To be fair, later on, QAN admits that the lockdowns will have an expected anticipated adverse effect on EBITDA in the first half of 2022. This for an airline that only currently has $2.2 billion in cash as liquidity (although there are additional undrawn facilities of $1.6 billion.

The estimate that in 2H 22 domestic flying will return to '110 per cent of previous capacity' seems very optimistic.

The resumption of flying to what may be perceived as 'higher COVID-19 risk nations in April 2022 is possible, but unlikely. We may not have had a Federal election by then - my suggestion is any time between March and May 2022, avoiding school holidays and Easter) but will a relected or new Federal Government be willing to allow overseas travel to those below by then?

Flights to Hong Kong will restart in February and the rest of the Qantasand Jetstar international network
is planned to open up from April 2022, with capacity increasing gradually.
Flights to destinations that still have low vaccine rates and high levels of COVID infection will now be pushed
out from December 2021 until April 2022 –including Bali, Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Phuket, Ho Chi Minh
City and Johannesburg.

To 'less risky' - public perception - destinations, this also seems fairly optimistic, particularly in the range of destinations claimed to restart by QAN:

From mid-December 2021, flights would start from Australia to COVID-safe destinations, which are likely
to include Singapore, the United States, Japan, United Kingdom and Canada using Boeing 787s, Airbus
A330s,and 737s and A320s for services to Fiji.