Ann: Qantas Group Market Update, page-28

Oil smashed and not going anywhere
Forecast for a special dividend and share buybacks are on the cards - smh/the age

Qantas last month forecast it would report an underlying first half profit in the range of $875 million and $925 million, up from $367 million in the same period the prior year.

Analysts are focused on the prospect of the airline returning a large amount of surplus cash to shareholders. Mr Butler forecast Qantas would pay special dividends of 50¢ a share this year and next year, totalling $2.1 billion, even though the carrier's total excess capital could be twice that level.

Merrill Lynch analyst Matthew Spence expects Qantas will announce a buyback program in the range of $500 million to $800 million alongside its half-year results on February 23, while Deutsche Bank analyst Cameron McDonald forecast a 25¢-a-share dividend will be announced alongside the half-year results.