Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Report - March 2021, page-33

When you guys talk about C.O.S. you have to take into account the Monte Carlo fallacy ie. if 5 wells have a 20% C.O. S. and 4 wells are dusters,
the C.O.S. of the 5th well is still only 20% not 80%.

A more common example of the Monte Carlo fallacy is the flip of a coin where the odds are 50% either heads or tails will turn up. In a series of say, ten flips, if heads has come up 9 times in a row the chances of the 10th flip being tails are still only 50/50.

Same with drilling oil wells which probably explains why many junior oilers go broke.