Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Report - March 2021, page-36

yes, that’s correct, when you come to it each well has it’s own unique PoS when you get to it. So the chance of Rafa when we get to it is independent of the KJ result.
However, that is different to asking what is the chance before you start of 1 success out of x wells to be drilled, if each well has a certain given % chance of success. My numbers above are all correct.
However, the chance of any kind of economic success at all from one out of the two wells is significantly higher than the only thing we can accurately calculate based on what BRU provided, which is the probability of one of the two being a “Best Estimate” prospective resources discovery. (perhaps an oil man can confirm if the exact definition of the PoS quoted is for “Best Estimate” prospective resources (no more, no less within a certain narrow range either side) or if it means at least “Best Estimate” prospective resources (or better, ie including any possible upside) ?
#liesdamnliesandstatistics