GLN 7.14% 13.0¢ galan lithium limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Report, page-46

  1. 5,041 Posts.
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    Just a thought - this chart is your baby (and very well done). But it might be worth considering a risk factoring % applied to some of these projects, as most of the large broking/analyst houses do. For example, GLN sounds great doing 60ktpa but what is the reasonable chance of this actually being funded and proceeding on that basis? Is it 70%? 50%? 20%? The problem with taking ASX company aspirations on their word without adjusting for realistic outcomes is that you end up with a Steve Promnitz situation where any old number (LKE's 100ktpa) can be thrown out to appease a retail shareholder register... and it's only later on that reality dawns on the costs and logistics of actually delivering that.

    Although many here probably won't believe it, I'm still looking for things to be excited about Galan's plans here... there's definitely stuff there, but them simply throwing out a bigger number in a quarterly report probably isn't it. They can't release a DFS per original timelines, what's the likelihood they'll be able to execute 60ktpa? Definitely some factoring required here, well under 50% in my thinking. Cheers
 
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