GLN 4.17% 23.0¢ galan lithium limited

Agree based off the LEL calculus for their sale $63 million USD...

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    Agree based off the LEL calculus for their sale $63 million USD , which is fresh off the press, would have to be a price for mine circa $ 250 M USD - ($ 380 M AUD) which is circa your figure. Lel had 400 ppm and about 1/3rd our resource. With 400 ppm they were consciously considering DLE options and anyone with knowledge of Lake knows what rabbit hole that can lead to. A low cost route to market like chloride would not have been possible and most likely a very capex intensive dle pathway would be needed with their project.

    Lel only ever advanced to a scoping study in the study of their economics compared to a DFS with our stage 2 and their scoping study assumed a leap to full blown carbonate production vs our chloride approach , which makes the two economic studies less directly comparable. Given this difference whilst our NPV was better I feel the differential in their calculated NPV10 of $1.30 Bn from their scoping study vs our NPV8 of $ 1.90 Bn is less reflective of the underlying differences in the resources.

    Here is their resource ;

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6140/6140067-b21b37c17ff6881475ad678250d0366a.jpg


    & here is our recent resource statement ;

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6140/6140139-a13295e03267658fbdac1628d578dee1.jpg


    With our measured & indicated ( note they had no "measured" given how early into project development they were) so one can only compare measured and indicated as a category . That is 7072 vs 2360 , circa 3 times. That size of resource opens up 40 - 60 ktpa which is an economy of scale unlikely at the LEL project which has significant effects on long run intrinsic value. The difference in concentration ( 869 vs 400) is definitely worth something as would lead to savings in both capex and opex but what , not sure but lets call it conservatively $ 50 M USD.

    So my estimate is $ 63 M USD x 3 + $ 50 M gives circa $ 250 M USD. You could probably add another $ 50 M AUD for all the works done to date but in a firesale unlikely you would get much for sunk expenditure. Low cost brine assets are rare globally and they aint making any more of them . Such assets will have opex costs sub $ 4000 USD, so can easily make money even in lower price environments like we have now of circa $ 15 K USD for carbonate where very fat trading margins can be harnessed by a good operator. To boot clearly also you have a supportive state and now federal government in Argentina now as evidenced by last week's annoucement with the state govt and the rise of Milei federally last year unlike the socialist ratbags you have running neighboring chile now.

    So if we run out of money , for me all day , every day those assets are worth something approaching $ 400 M Aussie. Whether you could get that in a firesale would be the big question but that is definitely around the mark I think buyers would realistically entertain.
 
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