Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

CXO

4.55%

10.5¢ core lithium ltd

Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report 31 March 2022, page-22

First 22 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Kjuagutt

183 Posts.

31

27/04/22

13:22

Post #: 61044431
Share

Originally posted by Kiwisfly9: ↑

I know most of you have all seen this but for the benefit of any new traders here is some maths to consider if they are feeling a bit shakey about holding onto their shares right now and why its so important to hold on.

Spodumene according to all the major metals markets monitors is selling in the June Quarter for upwards of 5000 USD on contract. If we assume that this price remains stable (it won't, it will keep going because there is a global lithium supply deficit and it will only get worse) then the maths of the project look something like this.

190 000 tons of production a year
5000 USD per ton
Offtake agreements which will pay near spot price. I will assume 95% of spot price so 5000 USD per ton becomes 4750 USD per ton
441 USD per ton all in sustaining cost (this does not include royalties or corporate tax)
2.5% Royalties on gross profits
30% business tax rate (if we assume the Accountants don't find massive deductions and write downs which they will but lets just be super conservative)

That means we get 4750 USD per ton of spodumene we mine minus 441 USD per ton for the all in sustaining cost = 4309 USD per ton

4309 times 190 000 tons per year = 818'710'000 USD per year Gross
818710000 USD per year times 0.7 (to account for business tax) = 573 097 000 USD
573 097 000 USD times 0.975 (to account for 2.5% royalties to the Canadians) = 558 769 575 USD per year

Converted at todays exchange rate gives us 781'556'028 Australian dollars in pure profit.

Typically, future share value is based on a ratio of 8.5- 15 times EBITDA to give the expected market cap, which is then divided by the amount of shares on issue to give the expected share price.

558769575 times the conservative ratio of 8.5 is 4.75 Billion dollars
558769575 times the conservative ratio of 15 is 8.31 Billion dollars

4.75 billion divided by 1.71 billion shares on issue equals a share price of 2.77 AUD a share
8.31 billion divided by 1.71 billion shares on issue equals a share price of 4.90 AUD a share

***These figure does not include the extra money we will make from the Lithium fines that come from the crushing circuit which need to be added on top***
***These figure does not include the likely higher spodumene prices we will actually get by the time were in production***
***These figures do not include a potential doubling of production for a very small additional capital outlay***

Expand

NT News uninformed article, wonder when they wake up to the facts

CXO Price at posting: $1.36 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

AI stocks: What to expect in 2024-25

ASL

Andean discovers up to 4,649 AgEq through maiden drilling in Chile

AUN

Aurumin reports high-grade iron ore rock chips at Central Sandstone, WA

M2R

Miramar sniffs 5.48% Cu, 54.4% Pb and 73.48g/t Ag at new WA prospect

WGX

Australian foreign investment regulators greenlight Westgold's buyout of Karora

There are more pages in this discussion • 18 more messages in this thread...

First 22 Last

Add CXO (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 10.5¢		Change -0.005(4.55%)		Mkt cap ! $224.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
11.0¢	11.5¢	10.5¢	$563.0K	5.106M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
58	4430912	10.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
11.0¢	660948	22

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
58	4431389	0.105
113	5934496	0.100
13	712370	0.099
8	688245	0.098
6	412072	0.097

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.110	643881	23
0.115	965968	13
0.120	2534106	29
0.125	3571812	44
0.130	2870480	39

Last trade - 11.03am 18/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

CXO (ASX) Chart

Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report 31 March 2022, page-22

AI stocks: What to expect in 2024-25

Andean discovers up to 4,649 AgEq through maiden drilling in Chile

Aurumin reports high-grade iron ore rock chips at Central Sandstone, WA

Miramar sniffs 5.48% Cu, 54.4% Pb and 73.48g/t Ag at new WA prospect

Australian foreign investment regulators greenlight Westgold's buyout of Karora

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report 31 March 2022, page-22

Top Stories

AI stocks: What to expect in 2024-25

Andean discovers up to 4,649 AgEq through maiden drilling in Chile

Aurumin reports high-grade iron ore rock chips at Central Sandstone, WA

Miramar sniffs 5.48% Cu, 54.4% Pb and 73.48g/t Ag at new WA prospect

Australian foreign investment regulators greenlight Westgold's buyout of Karora

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News