There are so many variables as to what the share price could do and never do the stars align but I can give you a basic idea based on what we have actually seen trade in the Permian basin based on the stack of takeovers last year or so.
Most of them are in the prime Permian Midland and Delaware basin but we have seen production there declining due to the over drilling that has occurred and this could be very good for presidio as it is effectively a whole new basin.
HE8 has a $145m market cap or $95m USD (as all of these acquisitions are based in USD)
https://investor.ovintiv.com/2023-04-03-Ovintiv-to-Acquire-Core-Midland-Basin-Assets
and we have 17850 gross acres (so far).
Earthstone acquired Titus oil and gas for $627m USD which had 7900 net acres in Delaware basin obviously net producing acres so that works out to about $79000 USD an acre.
Then in August 2023 Permian Resources acquired Earthstone energy for $4.5bn USD including debt for 56000 high quality net acres so that work out again paying circa $80000 USD an acre for that deal.
In April 2023 Ovintiv (OVV) acquired from Black Swan Oil and gas 65000 acres but they were largely undeveloped like Helios for $4.275bn USD
https://investor.ovintiv.com/2023-04-03-Ovintiv-to-Acquire-Core-Midland-Basin-Assets
Based on that Ovintiv were paying basically $65000 USD an acre.
So with these two scenarios we have anywhere from $80000 USD an acre for prime Delware to $65000 for undeveloped but still near that Midland basin. So roughly 20% less for undeveloped land so lets say Helios is 20% lower than what Ovintiv paid so around $50000 acre.
17850 x 50000USD = $892,500,500 USD
then with a 70% WI thats $625million USD which works out to be $950,000,000 AUD
which is around 36c a share for Helios given where everything is currently at.
This is not based on all stars aligning, just merely on what is fact right now. If we increase our land holding then this return will go up rapidly based on proven land. Then if the presidio basin has an oil rush like eagle ford did that low $50k acre could easily go to $80k like being paid for Delaware so you can do the math on that.
Either way we are at 5c now and I can easily see it going to 30c+ if just only a few things start to align.
Anyone else got any thoughts?
