re: Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Re...
Fair call, but for anyone interested, here is something I just posted on the ABU thread re POG. POG is more important to KGL than anyone with stage 1 of the Murchison now beginning production at relatively high initial cash cost.
Alf Field is calling an end to this correction in POG based on his use of Elliot wave. He can be wrong at times like anyone, but is regarded as one of the best if not the best at charting gold.
This time I can easily agree with him based on my own interpretation of the gold chart below.
First we had very solid support at around 1525-1530. I am still surprised any hedge funds shorting gold and anyone else wanting to pressure gold did not manage to break it below that level when it got so close several times because everyone considered it critical support and anyone that wanted to cover shorts would have had good incentive to push it below 1525. That alone suggests the support there was very strong. Next important sign of strength is the rising trend line of support since May with the support coming up off the horizontal 1525 level. While there is short term resistance at around 1640 formed since June, there is a fairly significant 1 year down trend line that has now been decisively broken to the upside. There is also a second parallel down trend line as shown on the chart from which we are also possibly seeing short term resistance. Any close significantly above $1630 (1640-1650) should be a good confirmation that this breakout is the end of this 1 year consolidation and the start of a new strong move higher. If the Fed and ECB disappoint this week, there could be one more drop on the short term traders getting out, and I would look for support at the break out point or the apex of the triangle that gold just broke out of before moving higher. The markets seem to know more easing is only a matter of time now- there sure as hell isn’t anything else that would make general equities rise now other than the promise of lower rates for longer. The gold chart looks like it’s on the verge of a big move up. My target based on money supply increases since 1980 is $2,400-$2,500. My target does not factor in the very high probability of continued money printing going forward to fund the large deficits so I think my target will be conservative. Alf’s target is $4,500 on this next run.
“The bottom line is that we now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4500.”
