Thanks ~Chillicop
Something to ponder.
Using Swami's own numbers in the last 5 quarters, BRK revenue ( $61.46 million)has exceeded expenses ($56.4 mill) by ~$ 5 million, including a spend of $19 million in the last quarter , most of which has been on the FMDP and Gapstow, neither of which have generated any revenue yet..... and there was that irritating capital return of ~$3 million in the buy back which is conveniently forgotten, I guess that is an " expense".
Anyway, breaking down his 2 periods, (2021-2023) and then the last 5 quarters we see that in the first period, revenue ( $34.7 mill)was ~half the expenses ( $60.2 mill), whilst as mentioned above, in the second period revenue exceeded expenses by $5 million. Positive trend, don't you think?
The next quarter will have a substantial deficit as final drill costs and large chunk of the completion completion expenses will be paid, there won't be any recorded revenue from the FMPD as production invoices are paid in arrears, and revenue will be down due to the Flames well shut in. At this point in October Swami will be celebrating that this is even further proof of his argument.
The numbers will turn around substantially in the Dec, March quarters as the FMDP and Gapstow hit flush production.
There will be fluctuations in quarters when D&C costs are being incurred for each DSU development, but Swami's numbers also show exactly the type of trend that will run into the future through to 2028 , where revenue and cashflow will increase ( as the producing well count increases) much faster than expenses ( which will stay fairly stable as 4-6 wells are drilled in each DSU)... and then when in the post FFD spend in 2028, we hit the "Holy Grail" as DP like to put it, of significant free cash generation.
His numbers actually help "make" the long term case for BRK .
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