Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, page-8

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cmonaussie

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01/11/17

19:01

Post #: 28410579
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Originally posted by circa1762 ↑

Just estimating 4Q income versus the company's 4Q estimated operating costs ($31.2M) -- not factoring in interest payment ($6.623M during 3Q), though, good point.

Per the quarterly, net 3Q boe were 854,887 times a realized average price of $39.34 per boe. Factoring 1000 boepd shut in for the hurricane during 3Q, four new wells coming online, and declines from existing wells, I figure 4Q net boe at least equals 3Q and more likely surpasses it by about 50K boe. Assuming LLS oil price maintains more or less the average it's established during October through the rest of 4Q, I figure 4Q realized average price will be roughly $45 per boe.

So that means 4Q income somewhere around $39-40M minus $31M in operating costs leaves $8-9M. Subtract interest payment of $6.5M and you're left with $1.5-2.5M. If a 50K net boe 4Q bump is too conservative and/or LLS price continues to rise through Nov/Dec, then maybe things look better than I'm projecting. I could see $43-44M in 4Q income if all goes well.

At any rate, after three years of doldrums projected 4Q numbers look relatively nice however you want to slice them, so I'm going to enjoy the moment.

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Seems reasonable. I would also recommend converting from boe to bo as that is the key for Q4 and Q1. Anothervplus is the premium with LLS.

SEA Price at posting: 5.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, page-8

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