Interesting question BI. A good response also from pe981. My personal opinion is that TIO will not make another T/O attempt unless they could sound out OCJ and get agreement of what offer would be accepted. OCJ is the king maker here. I think it far more likely that FMS and BBIG will come up with some sort of a deal that could include profit share or royalties (but there could be other). I can’t see FMS being allowed to do a deal with another party to mine and ship their ore. Really, a BBIG/FMS deal is the most likely and if that takes place it would make sense for BBIG to be the operator for the entire project IMO. There are all sorts of deals that could be put together and we’ll have to wait for whatever is negotiated to be put on the table. My guess (thanks to Jake) is that the deal will be accompanied by and IER to show it as fair and reasonable.
I would also suggest that TIO are supportive of the maturation phase (hence they have been happy to support the CRs and gain more cheap shares at the same time) as IMO they (BBIG) will need the updated JORC 2012 to complete their BBIG’s FID for the infrastructure project. FMS will also be able to put a stake in the ground come negotiations. The will be able to say, with evidence, that they have x million tones for resource and y million tons of reserves based on a grade. By doing some mine planning they could be able to confirm the feasibility of a 45mtpa x the number of years operation. (Last time I think they estimated a meagre 285mt of mining reserve for was it 12 or 14 years?)!
I agree with pe981 on manipulation. I do not think it is Todd/TIO but I know that many posters will disagree. There certainly apprears to be someone, or persons, at play with the SP for whatever reason. Given that there will be a CR to repay the loan I would guess that TIO would prefer a lower SP as they’d get more shares at a lower price. Having said that I am not accusing them or anyone else of anything untoward. The lack of positive spin in announcements is unusual for an exploration company as is, what appears to me to be, highly unusual for a company not to be actively seeking investors and maybe other partners (ie steel companies). Of course I have no idea what is happening in the background and my assumptions may be wrong.
Finally, does BBIG already know how it will all pan out? We’ll never know but TIO has bought into both FMS and BBIG. No accident? BBIG have planned a port and rail to our FMS PIOP. No accident? Would BBIG have done all the work so far if they were not pretty darn sure they can finalise a deal with FMS? Wouldn’t BBIG have done financial modelling to support viability and profit? If so, what figures did they use for transporting FMS IO? Or, after the maturation phase has BBIG (or TIO) budgeted to buy FMS? At what price would that be? After revised JORC and mine rate It is possible if not highly likely that the SP will be much higher and I would think that not even the newbie shareholders would be interested in a puny 15c/sh (although 15c/sh plus a royalty may be attractive (depending on the value). I would guess the answers will become clearer over the next months up to June (when I believe the BBIG FID is due).
Shareholders will just have to make up their own mind as to the risk and when to buy, hold or sell. I plan to hold my shares and acquire more (particularly on the next CR). I’ll wait and see what transpires over the first half of this year.
The usual disclaimer- I am not a financial advisor so don take my posts as financial advice. My opinions expressed may well be wrong so do your own research. GLTA.
FMS Price at posting:
9.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
